External signal·Yale Insights·May 18, 2026·Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld·8 min read
The Real Job Destruction from AI Is Hitting Before Careers Can Start
“fewer entry-level jobs are created, making it harder for workers to gain experience”
Summary
A Yale Insights commentary by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and co-author Celi (originally published in Fortune) argues AI's first labour casualty is the entry-level rung. Citing Stanford's November 2025 study, it notes a 16% decline in early-career employment in the most AI-exposed occupations since late 2022, with developers aged 22-25 down nearly 20% from their peak and software-development postings on Indeed down 53%. Job-market confidence has fallen sharply: the share of US workers who say it is a good time to find a job dropped from roughly 70% in 2022 to 28%, with college graduates now more pessimistic than non-graduates.
Predictions for the future of work
Argues the greatest risk is not a sudden wave of layoffs but a labour market that creates far fewer entry-level jobs — making it harder for workers to gain experience and advance, and threatening to break the pipeline that produces senior talent.
Originally published by Yale Insights · May 18, 2026
Read the original at Yale Insights