Applied Methods
~SignalsThe Real Job Destruction from AI Is Hitting Before Careers Can Start

External signal·Yale Insights·May 18, 2026·Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld·8 min read

The Real Job Destruction from AI Is Hitting Before Careers Can Start

CautiousShort-Term (1-2 yrs)
fewer entry-level jobs are created, making it harder for workers to gain experience

Summary

A Yale Insights commentary by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and co-author Celi (originally published in Fortune) argues AI's first labour casualty is the entry-level rung. Citing Stanford's November 2025 study, it notes a 16% decline in early-career employment in the most AI-exposed occupations since late 2022, with developers aged 22-25 down nearly 20% from their peak and software-development postings on Indeed down 53%. Job-market confidence has fallen sharply: the share of US workers who say it is a good time to find a job dropped from roughly 70% in 2022 to 28%, with college graduates now more pessimistic than non-graduates.

Predictions for the future of work

Argues the greatest risk is not a sudden wave of layoffs but a labour market that creates far fewer entry-level jobs — making it harder for workers to gain experience and advance, and threatening to break the pipeline that produces senior talent.

entry-level jobsearly-careerAI-exposed industrieshiring slowdownapprenticeship pipeline

Originally published by Yale Insights · May 18, 2026

Read the original at Yale Insights