External signal·Goldman Sachs·Apr 24, 2026·Elsie Peng·6 min read
The Jobs AI Is Likely to Boost—and Those It May Disrupt
“AI reducing monthly payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs in the past year”
Summary
Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng separates AI substitution from augmentation: substitution cut roughly 25,000 jobs a month from US payroll growth over the past year, while augmentation added back about 9,000 — a net drag of around 16,000 jobs a month and a 0.1 percentage-point rise in unemployment. The hit falls hardest on Gen Z and entry-level workers in routine white-collar roles such as data entry, customer service and billing. Goldman cautions the true aggregate impact is likely smaller, since the estimate does not fully capture offsetting hiring for data-center construction or the demand created by AI-driven productivity gains.
Predictions for the future of work
Frames AI's labour-market effect to date as a modest but real net drag, with substitution outpacing augmentation and the burden concentrated on younger, routine white-collar workers. Expects the net effect to hinge on whether augmentation and AI-driven demand (data centres, productivity gains) catch up with displacement, and treats the hiring slowdown as the leading indicator.
Originally published by Goldman Sachs · Apr 24, 2026
Read the original at Goldman Sachs